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Hit stats: Show the probability of being at least this far from the mean.

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This commit is contained in:
josteph 2019-05-09 16:52:02 +00:00
parent 494bdc51f7
commit d5874ea81c
3 changed files with 91 additions and 6 deletions
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2
data/gui/window/statistics_dialog.cfg
View file

@ -197,6 +197,7 @@
id = {colid_overall}
definition = "default_small"
linked_group = "detail"
use_markup = true
[/label]
[/column]
@ -210,6 +211,7 @@
id = {colid_this_turn}
definition = "default_small"
linked_group = "cost"
use_markup = true
[/label]
[/column]

2
src/actions/attack.hpp
View file

@ -90,7 +90,7 @@ struct battle_context_unit_stats
const_attack_ptr opp_weapon,
const unit_map& units);
/** Used by AI for combat analysis */
/** Used by AI for combat analysis, and by statistics_dialog */
battle_context_unit_stats(const unit_type* u_type,
const_attack_ptr att_weapon,
bool attacking,

93
src/gui/dialogs/statistics_dialog.cpp
View file

@ -15,7 +15,9 @@
#include "gui/dialogs/statistics_dialog.hpp"
#include "actions/attack.hpp" // for battle_context_unit_stats
#include "font/constants.hpp"
#include "font/text_formatting.hpp"
#include "formatter.hpp"
#include "formula/string_utils.hpp"
#include "gettext.hpp"
@ -29,7 +31,23 @@
#include "units/types.hpp"
#include "utils/functional.hpp"
#include <iomanip>
#include <iostream>
#include <memory>
// TODO duplicated from attack_predictions.cpp
static std::string get_probability_string(const double prob)
{
std::ostringstream ss;
if(prob > 0.9995) {
ss << "100%";
} else {
ss << std::fixed << std::setprecision(1) << 100.0 * prob << '%';
}
return ss.str();
}
namespace gui2
{
@ -111,6 +129,7 @@ void statistics_dialog::add_stat_row(window& window, const std::string& type, co
main_stat_table_.push_back(&value);
}
static const auto& spacer = " ";
void statistics_dialog::add_damage_row(
window& window,
const std::string& type,
@ -137,7 +156,7 @@ void statistics_dialog::add_damage_row(
std::ostringstream str;
str << damage << " / "
<< static_cast<double>(shifted) * 0.1
<< " " // TODO: should probably make this two columns
<< spacer // TODO: should probably make this two columns
<< (((dsa < 0) ^ (expected < 0)) ? "" : "+")
<< (expected == 0 ? 0 : 100 * dsa / expected) << '%';
@ -150,7 +169,7 @@ void statistics_dialog::add_damage_row(
const long long turn_shifted = ((turn_expected * 20) + shift) / (2 * shift);
str << turn_damage << " / "
<< static_cast<double>(turn_shifted) * 0.1
<< " " // TODO: should probably make this two columns
<< spacer // TODO: should probably make this two columns
<< (((dst < 0) ^ (turn_expected < 0)) ? "" : "+")
<< (turn_expected == 0 ? 0 : 100 * dst / turn_expected) << '%';
@ -164,19 +183,83 @@ void statistics_dialog::add_damage_row(
// Return the string to use in the "Hits" table, showing actual and expected number of hits.
static std::string tally(const std::map<int, struct statistics::stats::by_cth_t>& by_cth)
{
int overall_hits = 0;
unsigned int overall_hits = 0;
double expected_hits = 0;
unsigned int overall_strikes = 0;
for(const auto& i : by_cth) {
int cth = i.first;
overall_hits += i.second.hits;
expected_hits += (cth * 0.01) * i.second.strikes;
overall_strikes += i.second.strikes;
}
// TODO: show a priori probability of this actual result here. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisson_binomial_distribution
std::ostringstream str;
str << overall_hits << " / " << expected_hits;
// Compute the a priori probability of this actual result, by simulating many attacks against a single defender.
{
config defender_cfg(
"id", "statistics_dialog_dummy_defender",
"hide_help", "yes",
"do_not_list", "yes",
"hitpoints", overall_strikes
);
unit_type defender_type(defender_cfg);
unit_types.build_unit_type(defender_type, unit_type::BUILD_STATUS::FULL);
battle_context_unit_stats defender_bc(&defender_type, nullptr, false, nullptr, nullptr, 0 /* not used */);
std::unique_ptr<combatant> current_defender(new combatant(defender_bc));
for(const auto& i : by_cth) {
int cth = i.first;
config attacker_cfg(
"id", "statistics_dialog_dummy_attacker" + std::to_string(cth),
"hide_help", "yes",
"do_not_list", "yes",
"hitpoints", 1
);
unit_type attacker_type(attacker_cfg);
unit_types.build_unit_type(attacker_type, unit_type::BUILD_STATUS::FULL);
attack_ptr attack = std::make_shared<attack_type>(config(
"type", "blade",
"range", "melee",
"name", "dummy attack",
"damage", 1,
"number", i.second.strikes
));
battle_context_unit_stats attacker_bc(&attacker_type, attack, true, &defender_type, nullptr, 100 - cth);
defender_bc = battle_context_unit_stats(&defender_type, nullptr, false, &attacker_type, attack, 0 /* not used */);
// Update current_defender with the new defender_bc.
combatant attacker(attacker_bc);
current_defender.reset(new combatant(*current_defender, defender_bc));
attacker.fight(*current_defender);
}
const std::vector<double>& final_hp_dist = current_defender->hp_dist;
const auto& chance_of_exactly_N_hits = [&final_hp_dist](int N) { return final_hp_dist[final_hp_dist.size() - 1 - N]; };
double probability = 0.0;
if(overall_hits == expected_hits) {
probability = chance_of_exactly_N_hits(overall_hits);
}
else if (overall_hits > expected_hits) {
for(unsigned int i = overall_hits; i < final_hp_dist.size(); i++)
probability += chance_of_exactly_N_hits(i);
}
else {
for(unsigned int i = 0; i <= overall_hits; i++)
probability += chance_of_exactly_N_hits(i);
}
// TODO: document for users what this value is.
str << spacer // TODO: should probably make this two columns
<< font::span_color(game_config::red_to_green(probability * 100.0, true)) << get_probability_string(probability) << "</span>";
}
return str.str();
}